Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”