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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.