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For a brief period, Trump seemed to adopt a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "serious repercussions" last August in case Putin persisted hindering truce negotiations, he finally introduced considerable restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision substantially impacted the Russian leader's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, via his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was created by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's proposal would in practice favor Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality weaken that very independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate background, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, like ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will please the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not only about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in place the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a ten years of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses severely compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear path to the capital if he later decide to renew the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a move that would enable future fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "All radical belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has breached similar accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should anyone trust this commitment this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the initiative threatens a "immediate joint military response" should the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "serious, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. However unlike a powerful national defense – the nation's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of alliance members, like the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not